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Learning and planning

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I wrote in my previous post about time management issues, we face as non-professional investors. We barely have enough time for our jobs and family. How the hell can I one pursue an outside interest such as investing ?

I am not referring to investing one’s capital via other vehicles such as mutual funds, FD etc. These options require much lesser time and can give a decent level of returns. I am referring to pursuing investing as an interest or hobby. In such a case, one is not looking for only returns, but also at learning and becoming a better investor.

The beginning
My own journey started more than a decade ago. I had started managing the finances for my family and had started reading up on the basic such as what is an FD, what is a stock etc. Those were pre-internet days, so access to information was limited. I remember searching for books and finding very limited numbers on investing. My main sources of learning initially were finance textbooks and economic times.

By 1998, I had access to internet and that was like opening a huge door for me. For professionals like us, the internet is god send opportunity. I cannot imagine being able to learn and develop as an investor while still working at my day job without the internet. Even this blog would not have existed without it !

Well, with access to internet and all this information, I started reading and learning the basics of investing. The period 1999-2002 was time spent on learning the basics. During the period 2002-2006, I started reading more annual reports compared to general articles and books. However the reading was random and all over the place.

Reading too random
I realised by 2006, that my reading was quite random and not directed. As a result I was reading the entertaining stuff, but not necessarily the dry and important materail such as accounting, AS standards , annual reports etc.

In order to avoid that, i now have a list of topics I want to learn and improve upon. For example, my current year plan includes learning more on behavioral finance, GAAP accounting and arbitrage.

The process
With these topics in mind, I start by looking for books and will list 3-4 books on the topic. Once I have the books I need, I will generally spend 2-3 months or more on that topic. This ensures that I maintain focus on a topic, explore it fully and at the end of it have more depth in it.

As an example, I am current focussing on behavioral finance. I have read 3 books on it already and plan to read 1-2 more books on it. Based on my learnings, I plan to review my current holdings to check my biases and will also be updating my investment templates (see here for the templates).

Additional reading
In addition to the focus topics, I continue reading annual reports and tracking the performance of my current holdings. I am currently not searching for new ideas as my current list of holdings have reached my maximum limit (in terms of number of holdings). As a result I am reviewing my current holdings and will require a new holding to replace an existing one.

The above is a reading/ learning plan. All my blog entries and updates are usually centred around the topics and companies I am reading about. So you can see, the blog is an extension of my learnings and current thoughts.

So in summary I can break down my approach into the following points
– key objective is to learn and be a better investor
– all reading and learning is focussed on the key objective
– The objective would be achieved by identifying areas of learning and then focussing on them one at a time

No shortcuts and magic bullets here !

Time management

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I received this email from vikas and thought of putting a post on it.

I had a very quick qn for you. How do you manage to find time for your daytime profession, your family and your value investing hobby? Please give me some examples from your daily life. I find myself in a very similar position and I find myself unable to spend anytime learning value investing?

This is an important question, especially for non professional investors like us. Most of us, having a day job, do not have the luxury of being able to spend 8-10 hrs a day reading, analyzing and visiting companies for our investments. So how do I go about it? It is neither a prescription nor some approach, just an idea of what I do.

Lets invert the problem. With limited time, what can I ‘not’ do?

– Cannot track stock prices, volumes etc on an hour by hour basis
– Cannot trade short term, as I may not be able to execute the trade at the right time due to other commitments.
– Cannot analyze more than 30-40 companies in detail or more than 1 or 2 companies per week.
– Cannot track market gossip, chatter, inside news etc.
– Cannot devote more than 10-15 hrs (max of 20 hrs) to investing

With the above constraints in my, I have adopted an investment style, which matches my situation. As regular readers of this blog would have realized, I typically analyze and invest in a limited number of companies. I run a few screens to generate a list of decent ideas, analyze those ideas in detail and invest in a few for the long term.

In addition, I spend 2-3 weeks analyzing a company in detail and build my position over the next few months.

A professional investor would typically be able to devote 50-60 hrs per week on investing. However due to a day job, family and other time constraints, I am able to devote a maximum of 15-20 hrs per week (on average).

I spilt this time between learning value investing, reading up on companies and on this blog. Almost 50-60% of my time is spent on reading up on companies and following my current holdings, 20-30% on learning value investing and the rest on this blog (10-15%).

The other reason for being able to devote 10+ hrs per week on investing is due to the fact that I have no other hobbies or interest (other than watching movies). So I am a pretty dry person with limited interests outside investing 🙂

I am not able to devote 10-20hrs per week every week. There are weeks when, due to job and other constraints, I am able to devote only a few hours a week. During other times, when work is slow, I am able to put more time into investing. In addition, I use my spare time, travel time etc to read books and annual reports.

I have been doing this for the last 10+ years and although the time spent per week or month is small, the learning accumulates over time. The initial few years were spent in learning the basics and there were several times when I felt, I was not making much progress. However over time slow and steady progress adds up.

I eventually plan to invest professionally. The main reason for that is that I am passionate about it and would like to spend more of my working time on it.

The best person to answer the question would of course be my wife and kids who typically see me with a book or on my laptop reading something or engrossed in my thoughts thinking about some investment idea :). Of course my wife does not read this blog …so I am safe!

I think the key to finding time is how passionate or interested you are about investing. Paradoxically if you love the process of learning and investing and are not into it just for the money, you will find time and will enjoy the journey more than the destination (returns in this case).

Added note: I have switched the feed to this blog. There is a re-direct of the old feed to the new one in place. I would appreciate if some one can leave a comment if they are reading this post via their feed.

Next post: How do I plan for investing (if I feel there is interest in the topic)

NIIT tech: A falling knife ?

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I received a question : NIIT tech has dropped from 100 to around mid 50s. Is it a falling knife which one should avoid ?

I have written a post on the above topic earlier. So the point is how does one avoid a falling knife scenario ? In other words when it is wise to increase the holding as the stock price is dropping versus avoid averaging down.

Two factors
I would answer the above question based on two key factors one should keep in mind when purchasing a stock. The first factor is the intrinsic value of the stock. One should have decent idea of the Intrinsic value range of a stock. If the stock price is dropping and the stock is more undervalued now, one can look at increasing the holding.

The second factor is position size or risk management. Personally when I am looking at a stock, I make a decision on whether the stock would be a part of my core portfolio or the cheap-graham portfolio. Once I have made that decision, I have pre-set limit on the position size. One can have an amount or percentage of the portfolio – position size. I typically start off with a 50% position (50% of the full position) and keep adding as the stock price drops.

Once I had built the full position, I will not add to the position even if the stock price is dropping. This is the key to risk management. I regularly check my thesis to confirm if any of my basic assumptions are incorrect and if my estimate of intrinsic value is too high. However I will not add to my position even when the stock price falls. There is no averaging down for me, once I have built a full position

70% strike rate
I have read that most of the top investors typically have 70-80% hit rate. That is 20-30% of their stock picks result in losses, either due to bad luck or incorrect analysis. I don’t believe I will do better than that. I have now started working with an assumption that 20-30% of my picks will fail. In such a scenario, the risk management aspect is crucial. To do well on a portfolio basis, my successful picks should do better than my failures.

What about NIIT tech ?
In the case of NIIT tech or any other company, my focus is on intrinsic value and not on the stock price. The stock price can get disconnected from the intrinsic value for sometime, but it eventually converges to it.
My own estimates of intrinsic value for the company have not changed. The current quarter results show a bottom line drop of around 50%, mainly due to forex losses. I do not consider them as core losses (just as forex gains are not permanent gains). I have seen a lot of people get all worked up about forex losses, which does not make sense to me.
Unless the company is speculating on forex (via non effective hedges), I think the forex gains and losses should even out over the period of few years and hence one should be concentrating on the core profits to value the company.

As an example look at the results of the airlines such as southwest (in the US). Southwest airlines has been consistently profitable for the last 20+ years. They have had 2-3 quarters of hedging related losses due to oil price volatility. Do you think they have a problem in their core operations?

Anyway, I digress. Coming back to NIIT tech, I have not changed my estimate of intrinsic value and I have already built my planned position. As a result even if the price drops, I will not add to my position to manage the risk (if I am wrong about NIIT tech).

Management issue
However if you believe that in light of the satyam episode, you cannot trust the management , then the only course of action is to exit the stock.
Personally, the moment I lose faith on any management and cannot trust them, I will exit the stock irrespective of the loss I have to take on my position.

As an aside, my previous post was in jest. I received a few personal emails ‘challenging’ my prediction and one guy asked me why I did not predict the level, if I knew the time . I have no clue where the market will be in the future. However if you want to pay me, I can guess for you 🙂

Hoping for a quick rebound ?

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Have you been hoping for a quick rebound and a re-start of the bull market? I would not hold my breath on that. No one knows when the market will rebound. Those who claim to know are guessing. If you need a forecast fix on when the rebound will start, let me give you one – 11:22 am, 22 April 2009.

If the above forecast comes out to be false, I will just keep mum and issue a new forecast.

If the above guess turns to be correct, expect a banner on the blog proclaiming my brilliance and infinite wisdom (hail rohit !!). I will start issuing regular forecasts after that and will charge you for it.

Now this would be an easy way to make money, as long as I can find enough suckers …sorry ‘investors’ for it.

So are you willing to sign up for my hourly, daily, weekly, quarterly and annual forecasts? If you sign up today, I will give you a special 20% discount and throw in two extra forecasts, absolutely free !!!.

Moving the feed account

The feed to this blog is on feed burner (see here to understand what is a feed). Google (which owns feedburner) is moving all feedburner accounts to google accounts.

I am planning to move my account to google too. Hopefully it should be a non event. However in the event, there is some technical glitch and you do not receive an update in 3-4 days, I would request you to check the blog and leave a comment for me. Being a super duper tech whiz, I will immediately get down to fixing it :).

In case you are new to the blog or have not subscribed to the blog, you can use this link to subscribe to my blog. you could all the juicy forecasts in your mailbox 🙂

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