A few years back, i decided to consider a radical idea for someone following the value investing religion – Stop loss
I listed all the positions for the last 5 years and put a simple rule in place – exit a position fully if it dropped by 20%. That’s it, No other fancy formulae beyond that.
I recalculated the returns and realized that this simple rule, improved the portfolio return by 2.5% CAGR. Not much for a single year, but would lead to 28% higher portfolio after 10 years
What about false positives?
A few of these positions turned around and I would have missed the upside. That is the typical objection you get on the idea of stop loss
To that my counter is – Why do you have to make money from the same idea. There are 5000+ companies out there to choose from and making money off the same idea is not worth extra points. Once you exit an existing position, you can look at it again with fresh eyes and avoid endowment bias
The reason for this objection is the desire for the hero’s journey. Long term buy and hold investors pride in taking pain. They will tell you stories about the stock they bought which no one wanted and lived through a 70% draw down and had a 10X at the end of it. This is the hero’s journey where one is trying to prove himself against the world. I have been guilty of trying to be a hero too
Lets get nuanced
I presented last week on the topic – Process beats ideas. You can find the recording here
The last step of my process is the exit and this has been a weak spot for me in the past. I would buy and keep holding (with hope) even though i should have taken the loss and moved on.
This was due to false interpretation of Buffett’s teachings. He advises holding a wonderful business for a long time yet has a lot of churn in Berkshire’s portfolio . The reason is that very few businesses are worthy of – Buy and hold and so if he realizes that a company is not worth holding, he exits quickly and moves on
As I looked at my past performance, I realized that having a price or time based stop loss was a good idea to avoid holding onto ideas which are no longer working. I have built more nuance around it and shared some thoughts on it here and here (psychology of stoploss)
I now have a line in the sand for each company at which I will exit a position. This allows me to wipe the slate clean and re-think the idea with a clear mind even if I look stupid at that time
