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The world is Flat

T

I have been reading the book ‘The world is flat’ from Thomas L Friedman. Tom is a New York times columnist who has also written ‘Lexus and the Olive tree’. Both these books are about globalization.
His latest book ‘The world is flat’ is about how the world is changing (he uses the word flattening) due to various trends. I have just completed the first section, which discusses about the various factors, which are driving this trend. The ten key factors, which are driving the world, are below

  • Berlin wall : The fall of the Berlin wall was a key event as it a precursor to the fall of communism and moving these countries from communism and socialism (India ) to a capitalistic system. This event brought down the barriers between the countries and accelerated globalization
  • Netscape IPO : Netscape introduced the first commercial browser and brought Internet to the masses. Internet no longer was some geeky technology used by a few.
  • Work flow software : Here he talks of how the workflow technology has enabled the various applications across companies and countries to talk to each other and has reduced the friction in global commerce
  • Open sourcing : Basically the free software , open collaboration movement between individuals. Ex : Linux, Apache server and now blogging and podcasting
  • Outsourcing : Companies giving out various functions to specialized vendors
  • Offshoring : No need for me to say anything
  • Supply Chaining : Gives the example of how Wal-Mart has developed this extremely efficient global supply chain and driven down costs across the value chain
  • Insourcing : Outside vendor getting into your company and taking over non core functions such as logistics etc
  • Informing : Empowerment of the individual . Example : Google has enabled anyone with a computer and net connection to have access to all possible information (well almost )
  • Steroids : Talks about how wireless technology is accelerating the above trends

Tom mentions India a lot in his book. India has definitely got impacted big time. Even individuals like us have benefited. As a personal example – before the net , It was a pain getting financial information on a company. One had to go to a broker, ask for the annual report. The whole research would take days. Now I can Google any company and pull all the data I want.
The transaction costs were high prior to the net. Now the same are below 1 %.

Of course all the information , does not mean that investing is any easier. It still requires interpreting the information. At the same time, the minute-by-minute stock quotes and information (noise ??) are only distracting

My Investing mistakes

M

It is well documented and known that the pain of loss is much higher than the  joy of gain. I have had my share of losses (some due to greed, some due to ignorance). However, as buffet and munger have repeatedly reminded, one should try analyzing one’s mistakes and learn from it.

I am listing some of the errors I have made , and the lessons learnt. My typical holding is 4-5 years and so if I am wrong in analyzing an investment, the impact is much higher for me.

An error of commission
I started investing actively 6 years ago. While reading a magazine, I come across a recommendation for SSI ltd. This was (is ??) a company in the computer education business competing with the likes of Aptech and NIIT. The key differentiator for the company was its short term courses in Java and other technologies which were useful for IT professionals to land a good job. It was selling at a PE of 50 at that time.

The balance sheet was strong , with low debt and the company had recently made an acquisition in the US using its stock (@ a price of 2200 rs / share). The acquisition enabled the company to get into IT services and would have served as a good additional revenue stream.

Shortly after I bought the stock, the Dotcom bubble burst. Recruitments by IT companies slowed down and the IT services market dried up. As a result SSI got hit by a double whammy. Their education business suffered big time and also their IT services company never scaled up in the tough environment. I bailed out of the stock after losing more than 90 %.

My learnings

  • Never buy a richly valued stock. The companies future seemed bright, however the stock was more than reflecting it. So when the downturn came, there was no margin of safety to cushion the blow
  • Do not invest in a company whose economics you cannot foresee with reasonable probability
  • Do not invest in a company whose management you don’t trust. SSI’ s management seemed to be involved with Ketan parekh in boosting the stock. This should have been a red flag for me

An error of understanding a catalyst event in unlocking value
My next big mistake did not result in my losing money. But more so, I lost out on a huge gain. The stock is L&T. I bought the stock back in 1998. The company had mediocre performance till then. Post 1998, the performance nosedived. The cement division was doing badly due to the demand supply mismatch and the engineering division was doing average due to a recession in the capital goods market.

On top of that the management, stubbornly kept diverting capital from a high return business (capital goods) to Cement (commodity with low returns). There were media reports that the management would spin off the cement division (but I think it was just a ruse played by the management). Eventually I got disgusted with the management and sold off at minor profit.

A few months later, the Kumarmangalam birla group , after a corporate battle , bought out the cement division. The management (as expected) went ahead and allocated 10% of the equity to the employees and added a poison pill to prevent  a repeat takeover attempt (The management is still anti shareholder and I have not changed my mind on that). However with the cement division out of the way, and the capital goods market doing well, the  performance improved and the stock has gone up by 8-9 times.

My learning

  • I should have done a sum of part valuation. I should have valued the engineering goods and the cement division separately and calculated the intrinsic value based on the sum
  • Patience – The takeover bid had started. I simply got disgusted with the management and bailed out. Should have been more patient.

I will keep listing more of my investing miscues (which I have many) and share my learnings. Please feel free to share yours …

Microsoft’s nightmare inches closer to reality

M



Read this article on cnet.com. The article talks of the challenge which google is posing to Microsoft.

Found the following comment interesting. Interesting to see how established business models are getting disrupted constantly , for ex in Telecom, in the desktop space (where Microsoft had a complete monopoly).


Microsoft, it seems, is faced with a classic “innovator’s dilemma,” as author Clayton Christensen put it in his groundbreaking book that defined why tech giants usually miss the next wave of innovation. Microsoft execs made what looked like the right decisions at the time. As a result, the cash came in. The core product, Windows, became bigger and more complicated, and getting updated versions became harder to get out the door.
Plotting the counter-offensiveThe burden of that success, as the theory in the book goes, makes it harder to respond to the next generation of tech innovators. Years ago, Microsoft and Apple rattled IBM. Now Google, some believe, has a chance to rattle Microsoft by providing a cheaper, easier-to-use alternative. “Every other time Microsoft was attacking from below,” said one former executive. “Now (Microsoft) is being attacked from below and they don’t know how to deal with it.”


Can’t think of an equivalent scenario in India. But models which are undergoing a lot of change are retail, the auto industry – auto parts, Pharma industry (we seem to be playing a role in impacting the global industry ). Good to realize that in most of these sectors, Indian companies are acting as the disrupters or would be disrupters.

Am I too pessimistic about the market

A

I have been asking this question time and again to myself . Am I being too pessimistic ? I have some statistic below which I calculate to see how the over all market is looking like in terms of valuation and fundamentals ( extending back to 1991)


Return on capital, earnings growth seems to be at an all time high. The earnings have more or less doubled in the last 2 years. As a result the valuation do not seem to be stretched. The market is definitely not as richly valued as 2000 or 1992-93. At the same time the earnings growth , return on capital and interest rates are much lower than what we had at that point of time.

At the same time, will it get any better going forward. Can the Return on capital improve further, interest rates fall further and earnings growth improve further ? My thought is that the odds are low ….

But does it mean that one needs to sell or the market is ready for a crash ?? again I don’t think that is likely. I have not been able to come to a definitive conclusion and hence have chosen to do nothing ( not buying and not selling ).

Maybe another 10% increase in the market in the next couple of months could change my mind

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