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Analysis – Sundaram Finance

By Rohit Chauhan
In Company analysis, Investment ideas, Uncategorized
October 6, 2007
3 Min read
4 comments
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About
SF(sundaram finance) is an NBFC promoted by the same group which controls companies such sundaram clayton etc. The company is the business of hire purchase and leasing in the automotive sector. In addition the company has subsidiaries for housing finance, asset management, Infotech, insurance etc.

Financials
The company reported a consolidated revenue of 1100 crs with a growth of around 25%. The company has had decent topline and bottom line growth in double digits for the last 5-6 years. The ROE has improved around 10% to almost 15% now. The company also has extremely low NPA of around 0.5% and CAR ratio in excess of 12%.
The company has AAA ratings and has been able to get funding from banks and other institution at competitive rates.

Positives
The company is a well managed conservative company. It has show good growth in the last 5 years, with a decent ROE and low NPA. In addition the company has a strong brand name in its segment and a good distribution and marketing infrastructure which is important in the hire/purchase and lease business.
In addition the company is now expanding into new growth areas such as home finance, asset management and insurance. Several of these subsidiaries are now doing well and have turned profitable in the past few years

Risks
The core business of the company is still hire purchase and leasing in the auto sector. The auto sector has been in a growth phase in the last 5 years. As a result the company has been able to show good results and low NPA. However a downturn could slowdown the topline and bottom line and also increase the NPA’s.
The company is expanding into various financial services such as insurance, housing finance, infotech etc. These businesses are still new and have just turned profitable. However there are still risks in these businesses till they mature.

Valuation
It is important to do a sum of part valuation of the company as the company has several subsidiaries, JVs and associates. A conservative valuation would give the company a value of approximately 2000 Crs which is a 35% discount to the current mcap of 1275 Crs. An optimistic valuation would give a value of 2700 Crs which is more than double the current mcap.
To put it differently, the current mcap accounts for the parent company only and all the JV’s, subsidiary and associates are available for free.

The caveat however is that the investments in associates are mainly in group companies and it is unlikely that these holding would ever be sold. The company would be able to get good dividends from these holdings, but the full value is not likely to be realised.

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The Reliance effect

By Rohit Chauhan
In Finance and Banking, General thoughts, Uncategorized
October 1, 2007
2 Min read
3 comments
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update : Oct 09
well, the euphoria has increased even more since i posted, which was just a few days back. Reliance and a few other stocks like L&T are the new dotcoms of 2007. I am getting a sense of deja-vu ..can see a replay of 2000 here, alteast the initial part. Soon we will have people justifying the current run-up saying how it is ‘different’ this time.
Personally, in this bi-polar market i can see quite a few undervalued stocks and would prefer to concentrate on them than get pulled into this frenzy.

The S&P CNX nifty (NSE index) has risen by around 13.2 % in the last one month with the main move happening after the fed rate cut on 18th. The funny thing is that all reliance stocks have shot up since then.

The following is the increase in the price of these stocks in the last one month

RIL – reliance industries – 20.5%
Reliance energy – 75%
RNRL – 115%
Reliance communication – 13.1%
Reliance Chemotex – 147%
RPL – 41%

So I guess anything with the name reliance is in a bull market. The industry does not matter, only the management should be with reliance.

I cannot figure out what is happening. There seems to be two markets now. One is in a bull phase consisting of reliance stocks and a few others, with the rest of the market more or less even. So my approach is to stay away from the overvalued stuff and hold or buy what seems undervalued. Ofcourse i am not into momentum trading, so this approach may not work for those who are into that.

Disclosure – I hold RIL and REL. So I have one portion of my portfolio galloping whereas the rest is barely moving.

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Sell half and play with the profit ?

By Rohit Chauhan
In General thoughts, Uncategorized
September 27, 2007
2 Min read
Add comment
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Scenario: I bought a stock for Rs 50. My intrinsic value estimate was Rs 100. The stock quickly doubled and then some more. It quotes at Rs 125 now. What should I do?

The most common response I read and have also heard from friends is this – Sell half your holding and recover your investment. What you leave behind is your profit. Let it be in the market as can afford to play around with it.

I have myself engaged in the above logic. However I find this logic completely faulty. My ‘investment’ now is not Rs 50. It is Rs 125. That is the money I have now with me. I can sell the stock completely and choose to invest the money in another security or maybe just buy a Flat screen TV or whatever I fancy 🙂

The above is a case of anchoring bias. We tend to anchor our thinking to the purchase price of the stock. The purchase price is history. The current price is what matters

Lets take another case

I buy a stock for Rs 50. My intrinsic value estimate is Rs 100. The stock drops to 40. I investigate and realise that I have made an error and the intrinsic value is actually 35 only. What should I do?

The price of 50 now has no meaning. The stock has dropped and is still quoting above the intrinsic value. A rational response would be to take a loss and move on. Before I sound any more preachy, let me tell you I have been guilty of the same thought process. I bought SSI at Rs 1900 and rode it right to Rs 100.

Personally, I think the most rational approach is to constantly evaluate the stock price with your conservative estimate of intrinsic value. If the stock sells for more than intrinsic value , sell or else hold. Nothing else matters! not the price paid for the stock or the current level of the market.

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Gujarat gas – Recent review

By Rohit Chauhan
In Investment ideas, Uncategorized
September 23, 2007
2 Min read
4 comments
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I invested in Gujarat gas back in 2003 and exited my position by 2006. I recently read the following post on ranjit’s blog. As Gujarat gas is one of his top 5 holdings, I decided to re-look at the company to see what I am missing out as I had exited my position sometime back and did not feel that the company is under-valued.

I found the following positives

– Gujarat gas now sources almost 95% of its gas requirements at market prices now and has been able to maintain the operating margins. In 2003, a substantial portion of gas was procured at subsidized rates and hence there was a risk of margin reduction. The company has been able to manage the transition very well.
– There has been a substantial reduction in the transmission income. The company has managed this well by expanding the other lines of revenue
– There is substantial expansion in progress at Vapi and Jaghadia. Vapi will contribute to revenue in 2007
– Gas volumes, no. of retail customers and bulk customers are all increasing at a heatlhy rate. This should provide good growth over the next few years
– The CNG business is now in growth phase and should provide for healthy growth of revenue and profits.

Overall the company is firing on all cylinders. It also has expansion plans in place and is investing heavily. I have updated my company analysis (valuation template-gujgasaug2007) and uploaded the same. The earlier analysis of the company from 2003-04 is also uploaded in the valueinvestorindia google groups.


Disclaimer: I am not recommending this stock. I do not hold the stock as of now and may or may not have a position in the future.
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