We conducted a webinar last week on how to navigate a grinding bear market
Brief summary of the session below. Recording and ppt from the webinar posted at the end of this update
Grinding bear markets are rarely dramatic – they are slow, frustrating, and psychologically draining. This session focuses on a repeatable way to think and act when prices stop rewarding you, even while earnings keep moving
The core framework
· V-shaped ‘macro’ bear markets: exogenous shocks, sharp drops, and quick recoveries driven by policy/liquidity.
· U-shaped ‘valuation’ bear markets: endogenous grind where stretched valuations mean-revert over time.
· Key point: this is a framework to guide behavior – not a formula to forecast dates or exact drawdowns.
Practical takeaways you can apply
· Stop relying on ‘bear markets last X months’ narratives; focus on what you can control.
· In valuation-led grinds, patience is a strategy: normalization happens via earnings, time, or price.
· Do bottom-up work: hunt for reasonably priced businesses that can still compound (often 15%+).
· Measure progress with portfolio ‘look-through earnings’ (portfolio earnings growth + valuation), not just price.
Examples + discussion
The session has a walk through of illustrative cases to show how improving fundamentals + cheapening valuations can set up the next leaders. The recording also includes an active audience Q&A on drawdowns, market breadth, cyclicals, new-age businesses, and diversification
slides : Navigating a grinding bear market
recording