P&G Hygiene just declared great results. I have always liked their business (I used to work in the FMCG industry and have seen their sales organisation closely). The topline growth is encouraging with good growth in the Vicks and Feminine hygiene categories.
As expected, cash flow from business is very good as the expense on the main asset – brands , is expensed through advertising. Fixed asset / Wcap requirements are low ( and asset are being worked more through contract manufacturing for the parent company ). The company has been declaring good dividends for quite some time.
The companies has a very clean balance sheet , just 80 cr worth of Fixed asset and 165 odd cr of WCAP (228 crs being cash , effectively meaning -ve working capital ) for generating almost 500 cr + net income. Net margins are in 15 % range ( compared to 7-9 % for the FMCG industry ). This shows that the company has good pricing power and sustainable competitive advantage and a very lean balance sheet.
The stock is pricey though, selling at a PE of about 30. I have looked at the company in the past but never bought it as it was not comfortable with the management. P&G global has opened a subsidiary which is not listed. P&G hygiene pays royalty to the parent ( whereas the indian shareholder pays for the advertising and brand building ). In addition all new brands are being introduced through the 100 % owned subsidiary.
Difficult to trust the management to be fair to the indian shareholder …they could pull a fast one like the other MNC of taking the company private and leaving the indian minorty shareholders in a lurch. Maybe i am being paranoid , but then there a lot of other companies to invest , so why take chances ..
A good article on the global car industry
Read this new article on the global car industry on the economist. My take in terms of impact on the indian industry
– The weaking of the global companies like GM, Ford and their suppliers like Delphi etc would be a great positive for the indian auto parts industry as these companies would have to look at further cutting costs to survive. Indian auto part companies are very cost competitive and are rapidly moving up the value chain
– Critical factor for indian auto parts companies would be how rapidly they can scale up and meet the global quality and service standards ( provided they get some support on infrastrucutre ). Also they can avoid cost pressures if they develop the required technology and IP.
– Not been able to come to conclusion on it would impact the domestic car industry…will it be beneficial for maruti, Tata motors etc ??
Is the market overvalued ?
I have been reading a lot of analysis on the market valuation levels. A few articles are citing that at a PE of 14 – 15 the market is not too overvalued and should give good returns.
On the other hand , some statistics show that market is fairly or overvalued as the ROE for the indian industry is at its peak, Interest rates low, inflation low and the demand robust. As a result we are seeing these PE levels which are at the peak of a cycle and the normalised PE should be close to 17-18.
I find both arguments plausible, but my money is on the overvaluation side. I have become fairly cautious for some time and would be looking at initiating selling if the markets keep rising.
Also the overall market valuations are important if one is invested in index funds or ETF’s. Otherwise rather than concentrating on the market, i am looking at my individual holdings and would start reducing them if they start getting more overvalued (i think some are fairly close to their overvaluation levels)
Although i am not invested in commodity companies, i would look at their valuation levels more closely and would even look at selling them as my thought process is that commodity cycle is at a peak and industry profits are at a cyclical peak (for steel, cement etc ) due to robust demand, high capacity utilisation, low debt and interest level. PE for these companies is very low and i would not base my evaluation on those PE as the earnings are at a cyclical peak. In addition a lot of capacity addition is starting now, for ex: Tata steel seems to have announced a huge capex plan. So i would be wary of putting any money or holding onto commodity companies
Any thoughts ? please share with me
A New Blog
I have added a new blog by Prof Sanjay bakshi . Should be interesting to read his comments / articles and analysis
