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The number one criteria which determines the performance of a company is the quality of the management. This is also the most difficult criteria to evaluate and one’s degree of success in evaluating the management determines the eventual success of the specific stock pick and long term returns of the portfolio.

If you are into trading, momentum investing or any other quantitative methods, then management or the nature of the business may not matter. However if like me, your approach to investing is to evaluate the long term economics and performance of a company and purchase the stock at a meaningful discount to the fair value, then management matters a lot.

Although it is easy to state the above point, it is not easy to execute it. There are no fixed formulae to evaluate management. A lot of times I have seen people either completely ignore the issue of management quality or get too focused on it. I will turn to the issue of too much focus later in the post.

I myself do not have any magic formulae to evaluate management. However I have a list of points (in my valuation template) against which I run a check on the company’s management. Let me discuss a few points below. These points are not exhaustive on their own, but may be a good place to start

Capital allocation record: This is the number one responsibility of the management. How does the management invest the free cash generated by the business? Is the management investing it in new opportunities at a high return (preferably more than 15%) or is the management chasing growth for growth’s sake?

A single year of good or bad performance may not be important. One should look at the track record for a number of years to evaluate the performance of the management on this count. A good way to do it is to look the incremental return on new investments. The formulae for calculating this number is simple – (net profit for current year – profit for five years back)/(Fixed asset + working capital for current year – same number five years back).
The above number should give you an idea of how well the management has invested in the last five or more years. A poor record means that the management is failing at its core responsibility.

Management compensation: A good management should be compensated well. However the compensation should be in line with the industry and within reasonable limits. I typically look for compensation to be between 3-5% of profits. Any more than that is a concern for me.

Shareholder communication: Does the management discuss the bad and good openly and with honesty. Do they crow about the good news and hide the bad news? Unfortunately in India shareholder communication is almost non-existent. Even companies doing well give a one page write up of the performance. Except for IT companies and a few others, shareholder communication is joke.

Accounting practice: Is the management conservative in accounting. Look for how the management is accounting for investments and hedge losses. Are they conservative in accounting for old debt (more than 6 months). Does the management have reasonable pension accounting?

Conflict of interest : related party transactions is the place to look for this point. I am on a watchout for any large transaction between affiliated companies (sister companies owned by management).

Past reputation: Has the management been reprimanded by SEBI or any other bodies? Do they have a past reputation of taking the investor for a ride?

I use the above list and more to evaluate the management. There is no formulae or wieghtage for any criteria and the eventual decision is bound to depend on past experience and a subjective assessment of all the factors. At the same time, if the management has a serious negative on any of the above points such as shoddy accounting or poor capital allocation record, I will just avoid the company and move on.

In the end ,there are a lot more companies to choose from and I would rather hold the cash than take grief from investing with a crooked management, not matter how good the numbers.

Over focus on the management
The other extreme I have seen is when investors fall completely in love with the company and follow each and every word and action of the management.

During the bull run of 2006-2007, I saw a lot of investors discuss and dissect every interview and utterance of the management on stock boards. I am all for tracking a company and reviewing the quarterly numbers and conference calls (if the management does that), however I find it silly to read every possible interview and press release and try to make sense out it.

I think companies which are over communicative and share every small scrap of information are focused too much on their media profile and may in some cases, be losing focus on the running their business. Investor who track every twist and turn of the company, risk missing the big picture as they convince themselves that they now understand the company much better as they have been following it very closely.

Getting fooled by management
Even if one is diligent in the analysis and evaluates the management from all aspects, it is possible to get fooled by the management – aka satyam.

So should one stop investing ? By that measure, one should not drive as you can have an accident.

My answer to reducing the risk is diversification. You do not put all your money into a single company. If one does a decent job of evaluating the management, the chances of getting cheated by a crooked management are reduced if not eliminated. The entire idea of investing is to manage risk with appropriate returns to compensate for it.

A quick note on the paid service
First, my apologies to all of you who have written to me. I have not responded to anyone.

I grossly underestimated the response. My initial plan was to respond to each email personally, but after a day or so I dropped it as the numbers went way above my estimates. A lot of you have expressed interest, but have also asked for the details of the service (rightly so !).

I am in the process of setting up an email service and would recommend anyone who is interested in the paid service to subscribe to it. I plan to use this email message service to discuss more details about the service and also share some exclusive content on it (the carrot for subscribing:)).

Some of you have raised the point on what will happen to this blog after I launch my service. Will it undergo a change? I have no plans to change the nature of the blog. It will always remain free and I will continue to share some of the ideas on the blog as before.

I however do not want to use this blog to broadcast about the service too much (though I will have occasional updates) as there are a lot of readers on the blog who would not be interested in it and I don’t want to spoil their experience with such posts.

As always, my thanks to all of you for reading and following my blog.

The quarterly result for most companies are out and I have been reviewing the results of the companies in my portfolio. In most of the cases the results were as expected, but in some cases there have been some unexpected changes – in some cases good and a few not so good.

Cheviot Company – Now this is a company most of you would wonder, why the hell even invest in it? Cheviot is in the business of jute manufacturing and is located in West Bengal. I have written about company here and continue to hold a small position. This company operates in an unattractive industry in a business unfriendly state. The company workers go on a strike every alternate year and the compensation costs are now in excess of 15%.

If the above is not enough, the export market of the company has stagnated in the last few years due to the recession. So why hold this stock?

The company sells for less than cash on books, has been able to earn more than 15% on invested capital and pays out a fair dividend. The company is now focusing on the local market and has started growing again. However, all said and done, it is not the best of my picks although I have not lost money on it and I will exit in due course now.

Facor alloys – I wrote about this company recently here. The current quarter numbers are very good. If one excludes the one time power related charges, the company has earned almost 14 Crs in the quarter which is almost equal to the entire profit of the previous year.
This is a very cyclical business and one should not extrapolate the quarter numbers. However I think the company should do fine over a business cycle and is still selling cheap.

Lakshmi machine works – The company came out with decent numbers as expected. The key news on the company is that company has initiated a buyback which is good way of utilizing capital. I think the company could have done this earlier when the stock was cheaper, but it is quite likely that the management was conserving cash during the recession.

Gujarat gas – I have discussed the company here. The company came out with good topline and bottom line numbers(20% growth) The company continues to do well and is a well managed company. I personally think that once the company ties up more long term supply sources, it should be able to do even better and think that the fair value will keep increasing at a good rate.

The tech companies (Infosys, NIIT tech etc) – Infosys has come out with average numbers (10% sales growth, profit de-growth) in terms of growth. The company continues to generate a high return on capital, but the growth is now muted due varying factors such as recession in the US, exchange rates and rising costs in India. The valuations are still much higher and assume higher growth in the future. That may very well happen, though I am not betting my money on it – I have reduced my holding by a substantial amount already.

NIIT tech has had miserable performance in the last few years ( have written here about the company). The topline growth was non-existent and the silly foreign currency hedges kept biting the company. Those hedges are now being worked out and hopefully the management would not repeat the same mistake (of putting a multi-year currency hedge). The company has had a good topline and bottom line growth due to increased business in India (some of it is one time). I think the company should continue to give high single digit growth in the next few years.

The stock is not undervalued by a large margin and as a result I have reduced my position substantially.

The quarterly circus
Quarterly earnings are a big drama in the US. It is almost a ritual and every time a company misses its quarterly estimates, the stock gets punished severely. In India, the market was immune from this disease, that is till now. I have been noticing that in the last few quarters, any small slowdown or drop in growth is being punished severely and conversely, upside surprises are being rewarded.

A lot of participants may attribute this to higher efficiency and greater volumes etc. This may very well work for traders and in some cases for long time investors too. However I think it is bad for the companies and investors as a whole. A focus on quarterly numbers can cause management to take short sighted decisions which ends up destroying than creating value for the shareholders (remember Enron ?).

The focus of market on short term earnings may be or may be a good thing from varying points of view, but it is here to stay. In such a scenario, it can work for a long term shareholder if you can look past the temporary disappointment and buy the beaten up stock where the company will continue to do well in the future.

I was recently talking to a friend and he made an interesting comment after looking at my blog.

‘Why do you target beating the market by 2-5%, when you can make 80-90% per annum by trading? I recently started trading and have been making almost 7-8% per month. You should do that too!’

I have heard this comment from a lot of people in the past. The only common feature is that such people trade for a few months, make good returns and extrapolate it to annual returns. Ofcourse, the very same people after losing money in the market make a hasty retreat and are never heard of again.

The quants
I am currently reading a book – The quants. It is quite an entertaining book, though I doubt there is anything to learn from it. The book is about various kinds of traders who use mathematical models and high power computers to trade in the market. It talks about a few hyper successful traders at various firms such Goldman sachs, Morgan Stanley, deutsche bank and hedge funds such as renaissance technologies and citadel investment group.

Some of these trader/ investors were pioneers in their fields, the best of the best and achieved in excess of 30% annual returns over 10 years or more. The best returns were posted by renaissance technologies, which seems to have posted annual returns of around 40% over 2 decades.

The point of the above commentary is this – If you can make 30-40% annual returns for a few years and prove it, there are people who will be ready to handover millions to you to manage. You will be rich and can retire soon. If you can make 40% or more, then you will be considered a god and there is will be books written about you – think of George soros and others.

If you think you can make 70-80% per annum for the next 10 years, then you are day dreaming. If you think you can make these kinds of returns, as my friend suggested while working in a full time job, you should meet a psychiatrist and get a mental health check done.

I think the chance of 1 crore rupees dropping on someone from the sky while walking on the road is higher than making 70-80% per annum for the next 10 years. A 75% return for ten years will give you 269 times you starting capital and 73000 times your capital in 20 years.

A personal experiment
Let me come back to title of my post. If you are new to the blog, let me say it outright – I am biased against short term trading. I do not believe it is the right approach for me. It may work for others, but not for me.

I have said this more out of a general belief and not based on any specific experience, atleast till now.

So, this time around I tried an experiment. I decided to experiment with trading in the last few months. I bought some stocks for day trading, did some momentum buys and sell and did some news based trading too.

At the end of the experiment, I tabulated my results and found that I had made around 18% on my capital in around 3 months. The maximum loss was around 6% and the highest gain on a single position was 11%. The average holding period ranged from 2-3 days to around 15 days.

A success?
If I annualize, then the returns come to around 72%. Should I declare it a success and start trading actively?

I do not term the experience as a success and do not plan to trade ever again. Let me tell you why.

I typically check my long term positions once in a month or a quarter. My broker is one unhappy guy as I have very few orders in a month and my account is generally a sleepy account.

The above experiment seems to be a success only in terms of the returns. What is not obvious is the effort and the pain behind it. I found myself scouring the internet and bse website for news and tips. In addition, I found myself checking the stock price several times in a day. There was definite change in my thought process as I found myself more anxious, stressed and reacting more and more to daily news.

I realized that my short term approach started infecting my long term though process too. I started looking at my long term holding frequently and started getting more anxious about them. One fine morning, I just plugged the plug and stopped all the trading. Life is good now and back to normal 🙂

A typical experience?
So does it mean long term investors should not trade? No, it only means that I should not trade because I do not have the temperament to do it.

The point of the post it this – One should invest based on one’s own temperament. Some people like fast paced action and the adrenaline rush, so trading may the right approach for them. I prefer a slower and more sedate approach where I will analyze a company for a long time and then slowly build my position. Now if that nets me lower returns, then so be it! Atleast I will sleep well at night and not check stock prices continuously during the day.