Following is a note we sent our subscribers
We conducted a webinar on navigating the current bear market. The following were some points on how to invest in such a market
- Look for bottom’s up ideas using the value approach : Momentum does not work well in such markets
- Evaluate progress based on portfolio earnings growth and valuations
- Have patience : No one knows when the market will turn
The market peaked in September 2024 and is down 2% for large caps and 10%+ for the smaller companies. We have navigated this market with our financial and mental capital intact
During this period, we exited 10+ companies and bought 8+ companies. The exact number varies for the model portfolio versus the managed accounts. We have exited fully valued positions or companies which are not performing and bought stocks where the business is improving and valuations are reasonable
This ties to point 1 above. We are not waiting for the market to turn. We will continue to improve the quality of our portfolio as opportunities are available.
How do we assess the quality of the portfolio? A quantitative way is laid out below
Our portfolio level PE was around 40 times earnings with an earnings growth of ~ 19%. The same number is 22 with an earnings growth of 20%.
How are these numbers calculated ?
- EPS for the company * No of shares held in the portfolio = absolute earnings for the company (each row in the table above)
- Add earnings of all companies to get the portfolio earnings (circled number). Portfolio PE is Portfolio amount/Portfolio earning
As the market drops, we will deploy the balance cash or rotate out of existing positions into new ones such that the total earnings increase with the PE ratio dropping at the same time. Our goal is to buy growth at the cheapest possible price.
Not a physics formula
Please think of the above as a framework. We will not publish these numbers and there are qualitative aspects which cannot be captured. That said, there is a strong correlation between the portfolio PE and future returns (as it should be).
As the portfolio gets cheaper, it becomes coiled spring. When the market reverses its direction, our portfolio will rise
And this brings us to the 3rd point. No one can predict when the market will turn. Instead of agonizing over it or trying to time it, our approach is to keep doing the work
